Geoökologisches Kolloquium WS 2006/07

Alle Termine

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Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh
Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service in the UK
Donnerstag, 19.10.2006 16:15 H6

Global Oil Depletion & the Impending Oil Shortage

With crude oil prices hovering at or above $75 a barrel, more people are looking for alternative sources of energy. Others are asking how long existing sources will last. Despite the almost quadrupling of the oil price since 2002, the world still seems reluctant to accept that high oil prices are not just a consequence of Chinese demand, temporary shortages of refining capacity, political instability in the Middle East, and the occasional hurricane.
Quite differently, many experts think the peak in global oil production could be reached some time between now and 2010, others that it will come between 2010 and 2020. Own research, however, indicates that the peak had already been reached in 2004 if we factor in what is described as ³OPEC²s inflated proven oil reserves´.
In this lecture will be discussed that the sustained high oil prices since 2002 might be an early indication of a serious global supply-demand imbalance brought about by ³peak oil´. It is also argued that the slowdown in oil production may have already started; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to what may be the ³final energy crisis´. Unconventional oil production may not be able to delay the decline in global conventional oil production but could only ameliorate it. It is concluded that peak oil is not only a reality but is already impacting on oil prices, the world economy and the global energy security.
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*Dr Mamdouh G. Salameh is an international oil economist, a consultant to the World Bank in Washington DC and a technical expert of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna. Dr Salameh is Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service in the UK and a member of both the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He is also a member of the Energy Institute in London.


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