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TZUNTIL:20050327T010000Z
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DTSTART:20021027T030000
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DTSTAMP:20260823T085512Z
DESCRIPTION:Frequency of paleoclimatic variations matches that of the eleme
 nts of \nearth\'s circum-solar orbit. It is generally accepted that the se
 asonal \nand latitudinal redistribution of solar energy reaching the Earth
  controls \nthe state of global climate. Correlation of paleoclimatic evid
 ence with \norbital changes shows that the build-up of polar ice accelerat
 es at \ntimes of low obliquity and early winter perihelion.  Paleoclimatic
  data \nalso show that this orbital configuration favors the warming of tr
 opical \noceans\, increased transfer of water vapor to the high latitudes 
 and \nincreased frequency of El Nino\, which becomes dominant over La \nNi
 na anomalies. Because the oceans in low latitudes\, which are \nwarming\, 
 form the largest portion of the planet\, it is highly probable \nthat the 
 areally averaged global surface temperature during the first \nseveral mil
 lennia of the glacial ice build-up was increasing and \nconsequently\, tha
 t the glacials started with global warming.\n\nToday the orbital configura
 tion\, although less extreme\, is in principle \nsimilar to the one at the
  start of the last glacial\, 115 thousand years \nago. Frequency of El Nin
 o is increasing\, that of La Nina decreasing\, \nice on top of Antarctica 
 and Greenland is growing and northern North \nAtlantic is getting fresher.
   Obliquity is also dropping and the insolation \nto central Arctic is slo
 wly decreasing. These current trends\, when \ncompared with the paleoclima
 tic evidence\, raise important questions \nabout near future climates: \n	 
 \n	1) What is the proportion of natural and artificial components of \nthe 
 ongoing climate change?\n 	2) Is the anthropogenic impact on climate change
  properly \ndetected by globally averaged temperatures? Does IPCC and medi
 a \nhave it right?\n	3) And\, most importantly: is the man made CO2 mitigat
 ing or \naccelerating the natural shift into a glacial?
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20030703T180000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20030703T235959
LOCATION:H6
SUMMARY:Dr. George Kukla\, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Uni
 versity\, Palisades\, NY\, USA: Foxy trick of mother nature: into a glacia
 l through global warming
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
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