Unearthing the future: Exploring implications of geographic range dynamics in the fossil record

The fossil record offers a unique temporal perspective on the interplay between biodiversity and environmental change, revealing patterns of resilience and vulnerability across geological time. As modern ecosystems face accelerating biodiversity loss, this archive therefore challenges us to reflect on its potential to deepen our understanding of the changes ahead.

Here we investigate macroevolutionary trends in geographic range across key marine classes – Anthozoa, Bivalvia, Chondrichthyes, Echinoidea, Gastropoda, and Mammalia – to identify patterns associated with genus-level extinction and survival. Using statistical modelling of Cenozoic fossil data, the analyses explore how geographic range dynamics relate to extinction risk and climatic variability, with particular focus to the roles of taxonomic identity, organismal traits, and climate history.

By uncovering patterns of extinction and persistence, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying ecological change; knowledge that is increasingly vital for understanding, anticipating and addressing future challenges.