Spreading insect-borne diseases in face of climate change
O 4.7 in Climate change research
02.04.2009, 17:45-18:00, H8
In current science climate change was discussed as a possible driver of dispersal of thermophilic vectors that can transmit vector-borne diseases. West Nile fever, Chikungunya virus, dengue fever or leishmaniasis depends on insects as vectors, especially mosquitoes. As a consequence of the climate induced spread of insects that could act as vectors, such diseases could become significant in Germany during the upcoming years. We present a method to detect the climatic approaches of specific vectors from recent occurrences. Based on this regional climate models, varying in space and time, are used to predict future occurrence probabilities and spreading tendencies. In an additional step the biological and ecological interaction between vector and pathogen will be studied to detect the spreading potential of vector-borne diseases. An early localisation of projected exposed regions is needed in order to identify and evaluate regional risk potentials.
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