Integrating Hydrological Extremes into Outbreak Risk Modelling for Vector Borne Diseases in Europe

Research on hydrological extremes has predominantly focused on the interactions between the extremes and their societal impacts, often overlooking the implications of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). While risk mapping for VBDs has primarily addressed the effects of a warming climate, the influence of hydrological extremes remains underexplored. Here, we propose a modelling framework to incorporate the impact of hydrological factors on the outbreak risk of VBDs, exemplified by West Nile viral disease transmission.

West Nile viral disease records from across Europe will be collected, and an ecological niche model (ENM) will be constructed using current environmental factors, including hydrological factors, as a baseline for Europe. Future scenarios of droughts and floods generated from large-scale hydrological models will be incorporated into the ENM for future forecasts. The baseline model reflects historical and present conditions, while the future projections help identify potential outbreak risks.

This work aims to spark the innovation needed to advance the scientific understanding of the influence of long-term climate change and short-term hydrological extremes on outbreaks of VBDs in Europe.