BayCEER Workshop 2025

A global meta-analysis of botanical resurveys: Are there shifts in the dominant drivers of plant diversity change?

P 2 in Posters

Detecting and attributing multidecadal changes in plant diversity is an important mission for vegetation ecologists. Depending on vegetation type and region, a wide variety of factors can be considered as possible drivers of changes in plant diversity. These include changes in moisture or light regimes, eutrophication, the invasion of alien species, and various disturbances, such as fire, grazing, and mowing. In addition, the accelerating changes in the climate since the 1970s must be recognised as an increasingly significant driver of biodiversity change. While several hundreds of mostly local botanical resurvey studies detected plant diversity change and attributed this change to drivers, little research has been conducted into how the relative importance of drivers has changed over the course of the 20^th and 21^st centuries. For instance, no studies have yet determined whether, or when, climate change emerged as the dominant driver compared to other factors such as land use change or atmospheric nitrogen deposition.
To address this knowledge gap, we are conducting a global meta-analysis of around 1,200 published vegetation resurveys. We focus on three components of plant biodiversity change detected in individual resurveys – changes in species composition, species diversity and homogeneity – and ask what the primary drivers of these changes have been according to the individual studies.
Results of our meta-analysis will contribute to an improved understanding of plant diversity change and its drivers and assist with designing targeted conservation adaptations to global environmental changes.

Keywords: meta-analysis, biodiversity change, plant diversity, species composition, vegetation resurvey, global change, climate change