BayCEER Workshop 2026

Emergence of a large climate-vegetation disequilibrium in European grasslands

1.5 in Morning Session

08.10.2026, 12:15-12:30, H 36

Delayed plant population responses to rapid anthropogenic climate change have raised concerns about a growing disequilibrium between climate and vegetation states, which would heighten the risk of shifts in community responses and ecosystem functioning. Such a disequilibrium is well documented in forest plant communities, whereas recent research suggests that grasslands have largely tracked the species-composition changes forced by climate change. However, this evidence is based on only Californian and northwestern European sites, leaving the generality of grassland climate tracking uncertain. Here we analysed species-composition data from 71,356 survey plots sampled across European calcareous grasslands between 1951 and 2024 to assess whether a disequilibrium with climate is emerging in this ecosystem at a continental scale. We found that 70% of plant communities surveyed after 1980 had not tracked warming trends and 68% had not tracked drying trends, and that the disequilibrium between species composition and climate has risen steadily since 1980. We furthermore show that the magnitude of climatic changes is the main factor contributing to the climate lags in this European biodiversity hotspot. Our results indicate that a substantial climate-vegetation disequilibrium has emerged in European grasslands, placing this ecosystem at high risk of large-scale plant diversity loss.

Keywords: semi-natural grasslands, community composition, climate change, climate debt

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