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Faculty for Biology, Chemistry, and Earth Sciences

Department of Ecological Modelling - Prof. Dr. Michael Hauhs

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Master Thesis

Crop portfolio and income stability of farmers in Haean watershed, South Korea

Heera Lee (08/2012-01/2013)

Support: Thomas Koellner, Christina Bogner

Time Series Analysis of agro-economical data from South Korea

Temporal fluctuation of crop price and yield can have a strong influence on farmers’ income. Under uncertainty, farmers’ decision - what to cultivate and when to harvest it - is of crucial importance to secure their income as well as related ecosystem services. Diversified farming (i.e. cultivating several crops) constitutes a portfolio of resources and has a potential to protect not only farmers but also the environment. The quantification of fluctuations in agro-economical data is rarely pushed beyond simple statistical analysis. Thus, evaluating the effect of crop diversity on farmers’ income by methods of time series analysis would be an alternative approach to understand the stability of farmers’ income condition in South Korea. In this work, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to quantify the fluctuation of crop price and yield.

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