Climate Change Impact Assessment of Schwesnitz Catchment in Bavaria using SWAT

Bhumika Uniyal1, Koellner Thomas1
1 University of Bayreuth, Professorship of Ecological Services, Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany

O 2.5 in Session 2: Tracing Changes in Space and Time

29.10.2020, 12:00-12:15, online via Zoom

Water quantity and quality of agricultural watersheds are majorly impacted by change in climate and land use. They can be considered separately or in combination in assessment for water resource management. In this study, we propose a modeling framework to simulate the impact of climate change on streamflow, erosion and crop yield on a Schwesnitz catchment located in Northern Bavaria, Germany. The agro-hydrologic model named Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate daily streamflow, sediment load and major crop yields under present (1990-2018) and future climate (2080-2100). Bias-corrected climate projections (RCP 4.5 scenario) from EURO-Cordex project (~12.5 km) are used in this research to simulate streamflow, sediment load and crop yield corresponding to the considered future scenario. At first, the SWAT model was calibrated for the seven major crops growing in the catchment during 1995-2015 and later on the water quantity calibration was performed on daily time-step. Results indicated that the model is able to simulate the annual average crop yield with PBIAS ranging from ±10% during 1995-2015. Additionally, the streamflow calibration during 1995-2010 showed promising results with percentage bias and KGE (Kling-Gupta Efficiency) equal to 1.2% and 0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the impact of climate change on the seasonal shifts in runoff and sediment transport will be evaluated and discussed. Agricultural management practices or landscape configuration will also be tested towards better management of ecosystem services. The findings of this study will be valuable for devising suitable management practices for sustainable water management at catchment level to cope with climate change.

Keywords: Climate change, diffuse pollution, SWAT, Cordex, calibration

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