BayCEER Workshop 2024

Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany

P 6.18 in Posters

Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany  in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the country and is continuing to spread due to the attainment of a suitable environment for vector occurrence and pathogen transmission. We developed a process-based mechanistic epidemic model driven by environmental and epidemiological data. Functional traits of mosquitoes and birds of interest were used to parameterize our compartmental model appropriately. Air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the key climatic forcings used to replicate the fundamental niche responsible for supporting mosquito population and infection transmission risks in the study area. An inverse calibration method was used to optimize our parameter selection. Our model was able to generate spatially and temporally explicit basic reproductive number (R0) maps showing dynamics of the WNV occurrences across Germany, which was strongly associated with the deviation from daily means of climatic forcings, signaling the impact of a changing climate in vector-borne disease dynamics. 

Keywords: West Nile Virus,Mechanistic Model, Inverse Calibration, Mosquito-Borne Diseases, Climate Change