Anticipating biome shifts

Given intensifying human impacts on Earth, a key question is how much disturbance ecosystems can absorb before they are pushed beyond tipping points, where they function on a qualitatively different level. I will present new tools to anticipate such tipping points in biomes using Earth Observation Systems and global databases on environmental and anthropogenic drivers. I will demonstrate their suitability for evaluating the sensitivity of tropical biomes to disturbances, and examine how tropical landscapes would look like if the Late-Pleistocene megaherbivores would still roam them. I conclude by illustrating applications in conservation and landscape planning that aim at preventing undesired biome shifts and associated changes to biodiversity.

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