Tjaden, N; Caminade, C; Beierkuhnlein, C; Thomas, S M: Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts., Trends in Parasitology, 34(3), 227-245 (2018), doi:10.1016/j.pt.2017.11.006 [Link]
Abstract:

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.

Highlights

The use of ensembles of different climate models for future projections, as well as multiple different mechanistic or correlative disease models per study, is increasing.

Communicating uncertainties related to disease models, different climate models, and emission and population pathways to end users is becoming a common thing to do.

Most models tend to project an increased risk for vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission at high latitudes and elevations during the upcoming century.

While mechanistic models typically cover the whole chain of infection by default, most environmental niche models (ENMs) still focus on vector distributions alone; they are increasingly applied to whole disease systems as well.

Aktuelle Termine



BayCEER-Kolloquium:
Do. 14.11.2019 aktuell
Analysis of ozone formation and trend over northern Bavaria by using stochastic and deterministic models
Do. 21.11.2019
Quantification of subsurface properties using the groundwater response to Earth and atmospheric tides
Konferenzen:
Fr. 22.11.2019
Geoökologie-Tagung 2019
Ökologisch-Botanischer Garten:
So. 24.11.2019
Mikroplastik in der Umwelt
Vortrag:
Fr. 15.11.2019
Changing the game in Earth Observation - The European Union’s Copernicus programme -
BayCEER Blog
24.05.2019
Stoichiometric controls of C and N cycling
07.05.2019
Flying halfway across the globe to dig in the dirt – a research stay in Bloomington, USA
07.05.2019
EGU – interesting research and free coffee
16.04.2019
Picky carnivorous plants?
RSS Blog als RSS Feed
Wetter Versuchsflächen
Luftdruck (356m): 960.8 hPa
Lufttemperatur: 4.3 °C
Niederschlag: 0.0 mm/24h
Sonnenschein: 7 h/d
Wind (Höhe 17m): 9.8 km/h
Wind (Max.): 21.2 km/h
Windrichtung: O

...mehr
Globalstrahlung: 5 W/m²
Lufttemperatur: 1.2 °C
Niederschlag: 0.0 mm/24h
Sonnenschein: 2 h/d
Wind (Höhe 32m): 21.7 km/h

...mehr
Diese Webseite verwendet Cookies. weitere Informationen