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Hybrid Agent-based Modeling of Land-use Changes in Mountainous Watershed

Ilkwon Kim1, Quang Bao Le2, Soo Jin Park3, Thomas Koellner1
1 Professorship of Ecosystem Services, University of Bayreuth
2 nstitute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH Zurich
3 Department of Geography, Seoul National University

O 2.2 in …We collaborate with other disciplines and learn from each other.

02.10.2014, 14:25-14:40, H36, NW III


Land-use and cover changes (LUCC) modeling is widely used in land- sciences because they could represent various aspects of complexity of land-use systems. Among various LUCC models, a hybrid agent-based modeling (ABM) can be useful to consider such diverse factors and emergences in agent decision-making processes and to simulate policy and management impacts. Simulation of LUCC based on the hybrid ABM approach, which combines CA for regional transitions and agent behavioral model for crop choice, can be more effective to prepare LUCC scenarios for support of future policy-making. From these models, we could simulate land-use changes and their effects to mountainous ecosystems, which could helpful to policy making processes with land-use plans and regional environmental management. Multi-nominal logistic regression analyses identified social and biophysical drivers of different land-cover change process in the past. The result has been used for formulating an operational CA sub-model of broad type land-cover change across the watershed. Based on those inputs the CA sub-model is expected to sensitive to different socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Within agricultural zones, we will analyze and formalize agents' (farming households') decisions on agricultural types and management practice. This hybrid ABM could make it capable to capture both micro and macro changes in response to regional and policy drivers in a robust way.


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last modified 2014-09-09