Risk Maps

On the following pages you will find the risk maps for the possible transmission of West Nile virus.

In the future, you will also find the risk maps for the possible transmission of the Chikungunya virus and the population development (egg, larva, pupa and adult mosquito) of the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in the seven most populated cities in Bavaria and in Bayreuth.

Interpretation of the risk map

The risk maps show the results of the epidemiological model based on the local environmental parameters measured (basic reproduction number R0, see below). The value indicates how many birds/people without immunity can be infected by one bird or infected person. For example, if the value is 2, one infected person can infect 2 other people – the disease spreads. If it stays below 1, the local outbreak will eventually die out.

Basic reproduction number (R0)

The basic reproduction number describes how effectively an infectious agent can spread from one individual and represents how many individuals in a healthy population without immunity can be infected by one infected individual. The basic reproduction number is used to estimate how quickly an infectious disease spreads. If R0<1 (one infected individual infects less than one healthy individual), the infection will slowly die out. If R0>1 (one infected individual infects at least one healthy individual), the infectious disease can spread in the population.