The Asian tiger mosquito in Cities

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus, Diptera, Culicidae) is a competent vector for arboviruses such as dengue virus, chikungunya virus, West Nile virus and Zika virus. The invasive species can quickly adapt to new environmental conditions and is spreading towards Central Europe.

Germany also has climatically favorable conditions for the colonization of the mosquito. The first colonizations have already taken place, e.g. in Baden-Württemberg, Hesse and Berlin. The disease vector is also regularly introduced into Bavaria. There is justified concern that long-term colonization will also occur in Bavaria, especially if climate change conditions are considered.

We utilize a population model for the Asian tiger mosquito to assess the impact of urban heat islands in eight Bavarian cities: Augsburg, Bayreuth, Fürth, Ingolstadt, Munich, Nuremberg, Regensburg, and Würzburg.

The maps show the probability of Aedes albopictus establishing itself in cities under changed climate conditions. The expected temperature increase within the climate change scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios for the time period 2071-2100 were used for modelling the establishing probability of the mosquito.

The RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios describe different anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. RCP 2.6 is a very optimistic approach, in which radiative forcing in 2100 is increased by 2.6 W/m² compared to pre-industrial times in 1850. This would correspond to a global temperature increase of approximately 1.5 to a maximum of 2.0 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario, on the other hand, is the most pessimistic, “worst-case” (but also “business as usual”) scenario, in which an average global temperature increase of approximately 5 °C is expected by 2100.