Detecting low fragmented sites surrounding European protected areas - implications for expansion of the Natura 2000 network

Preserving land with low anthropogenic pressures is essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes. In response, EU member states have set an ambitious goal of establishing additional protected areas (PAs) preserving at least 30% of the land and 30% of the sea by 2030, specifying that these additions should be of high ecological quality. A targeted selection of existing PA expansions into surroundings, which are marginally fragmented by human infrastructure, may be a uniquely efficacious strategy to secure high ecological quality by maximizing PA area, accommodating species movement, and boosting climate change resilience. We used high-resolution data on effective mesh density, a metric for the degree of landscape fragmentation, in the vicinity of Natura 2000 PAs (N2k) to assess their potential for PA expansion. Our results show that contrary to most of Central Europe, mountainous and remote territories exhibit the lowest degree of fragmentation in N2k surroundings. Fragmentation in N2k surroundings is highly correlated with national population density, while economic wealth, measured by GDP per capita, plays a less important role. To address the long-standing dilemma of where scarce economic resources in nature conservation have the potential to do the most-good, we conducted a country-level comparison between fragmentation in N2k surroundings and national expenditures on nature conservation relative to N2k area. Our results show a vast incongruity in resource availability and spending practices for nature conservation among EU countries. Eastern European states, especially Romania, host some of the least-well funded national PA networks while holding the highest potential for expanding N2k PAs into low fragmented lands. If protecting low fragmented lands to expand N2k PAs is accepted as an efficacious strategy to meet EU Biodiversity targets our results could be used to formulate pragmatic conservation decisions, while also ensuring high ecological quality of PA additions in the face of climate change.

Fragmentation in the vicinity of Natura 2000 protected areas