Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for WestNile Virus Outbreak in Germany

West Nile Virus is an arbovirus transmitted by infected mosquitoes between humans and animals including birds which have been identified as a reservoir host for the virus. There have been cases of WNV outbreak in different countries in Europe. WNV first emerged in North Eastern Germany in 2018 with several cases in birds and equids in September and October 2018. Since then, outbreak among animals have increased with the first human case emerging in 2019.

Increasing temperature associated with a changing climate has been identified as a driver of mosquito borne disease. Warmer temperature has been associated with mosquito development, population establishment, functional trait of mosquitoes. Also, incubation and transmission arbovirus have been linked to warmer temperature.

We developed a process-based mechanistic model which was able to explicitly explain the West Nile Virus Epidemic in Germany. Results from the research revealed striking similarities between West Nile Virus Cases and Modelled occurrence across Germany. It also showed that WNV outbreak was associated with warmer temperature and may be aggravated due to continuous changes in climate patterns.