Macro-ecological insights from species distribution models: mapping the possible competitive interaction between golden jackal and Eurasian lynx

Recently, the golden jackal (Canis aureus), a medium-sized canid, rapidly expanded to western and northern Europe, after being historically confined to the Balkans. At the same time, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), nearly eradicated in the 19th century, recovered and recolonized parts of its old range, even though some populations still face extinction.

Studies in North America evaluated the competition between bobcat (Lynx rufus) and coyote (Canis latrans), reporting those species to compete when prey availability declines. Similarly, in Europe, a recent observation showed a case of kleptoparasitism towards the lynx from the golden jackal. In our research, we aim to predict the potentially suitable habitat for the golden jackal and the Eurasian lynx, describing the areas where those species are expected to coexist soon, also considering the density maps of their prey. For this aim, we model the distribution of both species in Europe for current and futures scenario using a set of biotic and abiotic variables relevant to both species in the context of Ecological Niche Modelling and subsequent post-modelling GIS analysis. Our results show that the sympatric area is predicted to increase in the future. We predict the two faces of global change, which would favor the expansion golden jackal and concurrently reduce the habitat suitability for the Eurasian lynx. The prey density maps show that in some areas, such as central Europe, the coexistence of the two species would be possible owing to the wide availability of prey, while in other areas (e.g., southern Europe, Balkans), the two species could compete.

The results of our study may have several outcomes in the context of large-scale management, helping to forecast further expansion of the golden jackal and to identify critical areas where the lynx could disappear or persist, supporting the management of possible reintroductions.