tundraFATE: towards predicting succession across an Arctic tundra landscape

Along with rapid warming, woody plants have encroached and increased in height across much of the Arctic tundra biome. These changes are likely to alter vegetation structure and impact local environmental conditions. Yet, considerable uncertainty exists with regard to spatiotemporal predictions of vegetation structure. In this ongoing project, we adapt FATE-HD, a hybrid dynamic vegetation model first applied in alpine settings, to the Arctic tundra, and aim to forecast vegetation dynamics across Disko Island (Western Greenland) until 2100. Specifically, we rely upon biotic interactions and successional dynamics, as well as on trait-based functional grouping, to ensure accurate representation of ecological processes and biodiversity. Ultimately, we expect to provide more nuanced scenarios of tundra ecological dynamics and improve understanding of vegetation development in the rapidly changing Arctic.