Muntjacs invading Germany – Potential distribution of the small Deer (Cervidae) species Reeves' Muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) in Germany

Invasive and non-native species are found in nearly every ecosystem worldwide. They have been introduced intentionally to provide services or unintentionally as stowaways (14/16 of European Union (EU) wide invasive species were unintentionally introduced). In particular, mammals as found in the class of even-toed ungulates (Artiodactyla) can harm ecosystems in numerous ways. Species like the reeves’ muntjac (Muntiacus reveesi), are responsible for damages in forests, protected areas and even in socioeconomics, in form of crop loss, car accidents and destruction of gardens in the United Kingdom. Now the muntjac is on its way to invade the European mainland. Because there are no Germany or EU wide possible distribution maps, I will extrapolate the muntjacs distribution with help of the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree approach. Due to its ability of a high sensitivity on basis of the predictors and its novelty in species distribution modelling, I consider the method as best practice in this case. Taking into account environmental factors such as climate data, land cover types, habitat fragmentation or human impact factors and potential predator pressure, I expect that large areas of Germany and the EU will provide suitable conditions for a muntjac invasion. This will call for caution in the face of a muntjac invasion and reinforces the need for a German or EU-wide programme of management actions. 

Male Muntiacus reevesi, © Jeffrey Hamilton | Unsplash