New study from the UBT Research Group of Ecosystem Analysis and Simulation reveals major regeneration gaps in German forests

2026-03-17

Leonie Gass and Prof. Lisa Hülsmann from the Research Group of Ecosystem Analysis and Simulation (EASI Lab) at the University of Bayreuth used data from the German National Forest Inventory and 44 environmental variables to develop tree-species-specific prediction models for forest regeneration. Using these models, regeneration for 28 tree species was spatially predicted at a resolution of 1 ha and visualized in maps.

The resulting indicator maps highlight substantial regeneration deficits:

• 14.3% of forest area shows low regeneration density,
• 30.4% exhibits low species richness,
• and in Bavaria, 15.4% of forest area lacks climate‑adapted regeneration.

The study underlines the need for more regionally tailored silvicultural strategies. Increasing tree species diversity and prioritising climate‑resilient species will be essential to secure the future resilience of Germany’s forests.